2016 Scottish Parliament Election predictions

Scotland goes to the polls today to elect the members of the 5th Scottish Parliament, and while the important result of who forms the Government might be settled already (with a third term for the SNP Government all but assured), the exact composition of the Parliament is still hanging in the balance.

Will the Tories finish second for the first time ever, pipping Labour to be the official opposition and adding further to their story of decline?  Will the Greens have their best showing yet, beating the 7 MSPs they earned in 2003?  Will some of the smaller fringe parties like RISE and UKIP manage to get a seat?

These questions will remain unanswered until the wee hours of Friday morning, and will be the real point of excitement in what has been a rather uninspired Holyrood campaign.

By looking at the final polls and the results of the previous election, here is how I think the 2016 Scottish Parliament election will pan out:

  • The SNP will win, but will not increase their majority by many seats, if at all
  • Labour will hang on to second place by a handful of seats
  • The Greens will beat the Lib Dems into fourth place in the popular vote but end up with as many seats
  • RISE and UKIP will both fail to get a seat, although they’ll both come close in their respective target regions of Glasgow and the Highlands
  • All party leaders will remain in their posts after the election

My predictions are based upon my average of all recent Holyrood polls combined with a ratio swing in each constituency and vote change swing in each region from the last election in 2011.  I’ve made the region swing weighted a little towards the 2011 results, as we’ve seen in many of the last UK and Scottish elections that voters move back towards their previous vote when it comes to the final decision at the ballot box.  Seats are then awarded using the D’Hondt method as they are in the election.

So here is what I expect the final results to be:

Constituency

List

Vote %

Seats

Vote % Seats Total

Change

SNP

51%

66 45%

4

70

1

Labour

21%

1 20%

26

27

-10

Conservatives

18%

5 18%

16

21

6

Green

0%

0 8% 5 5

3

Lib Dems

6%

1 6% 5 6

1

UKIP

2%

0 0

0

RISE

1%

0 0

0

Other

5%

0%

0 0

-1

 

And here is how those results will play out across the country:

Constituencies
Region MSP 2nd 3rd 4th Elected
Aberdeen Central NE SNP LAB CON LD Kevin Stewart
Aberdeen Donside NE SNP LAB CON LD Mark McDonald
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine NE SNP CON LD LAB Maureen Watt
Aberdeenshire East NE SNP CON LD LAB Gillian Martin
Aberdeenshire West NE SNP CON LD LAB Dennis Robertson
Airdrie and Shotts CS SNP LAB CON LD Alex Neil
Almond Valley LO SNP LAB CON LD Angela Constance
Angus North and Mearns NE SNP CON LAB LD Mairi Evans
Angus South NE SNP CON LAB LD Graeme Dey
Argyll and Bute HI SNP CON LAB LD Mike Russell
Ayr SO CON SNP LAB LD John Scott
Banffshire and Buchan Coast NE SNP LAB CON LD Stewart Stevenson
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross HI SNP LD CON LAB Gail Ross
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley SO SNP LAB CON LD Jeane Freeman
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane MF SNP LAB CON LD Keith Brown
Clydebank and Milngavie WS SNP LAB CON LD Gil Paterson
Clydesdale SO SNP LAB CON LD Aileen Campbell
Coatbridge and Chryston CS SNP LAB GRN CON Fulton MacGregor
Cowdenbeath MF LAB SNP CON LD Alex Rowley
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth CS SNP LAB CON LD Jamie Hepburn
Cunninghame North WS SNP LAB CON LD Kenny Gibson
Cunninghame South WS SNP LAB CON LD Ruth Maguire
Dumbarton WS SNP LAB CON LD Gail Robertson
Dumfriesshire SO CON SNP LAB LD Oliver Mundell
Dunfermline NE SNP LAB CON LD Shirley-Anne Somerville
Dundee City East NE SNP LAB CON LD Shona Robison
Dundee City West MF SNP LAB CON LD Joe FitzPatrick
East Kilbride CS SNP LAB CON LD Linda Fabiani
East Lothian SO SNP LAB CON LD DJ Johnston-Smith
Eastwood WS CON SNP LAB LD Jackson Carlaw
Edinburgh Central LO SNP LAB CON LD Alison Dickie
Edinburgh Eastern LO SNP LAB CON GRN Ash Denham
Edinburgh Northern and Leith LO SNP LAB CON LD Ben Macpherson
Edinburgh Pentlands LO SNP CON LAB LD Gordon Macdonald
Edinburgh Southern LO SNP CON LD LAB Jim Eadie
Edinburgh Western LO SNP LD CON LAB Toni Giugliano
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire SO CON SNP LD LAB John Lamont
Falkirk East CS SNP LAB CON LD Angus MacDonald
Falkirk West CS SNP LAB CON LD Michael Matheson
Galloway and West Dumfries SO CON SNP LAB LD Finlay Carson
Glasgow Anniesland GL SNP LAB CON LD Bill Kidd
Glasgow Cathcart GL SNP LAB CON LD James Dornan
Glasgow Kelvin GL SNP LAB CON GRN Sandra White
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn GL SNP LAB CON LD Bob Doris
Glasgow Pollok GL SNP LAB CON LD Humza Yousaf
Glasgow Provan GL SNP LAB CON LD Ivan McKie
Glasgow Shettleston GL SNP LAB CON LD John Mason
Glasgow Southside GL SNP LAB CON LD Nicola Sturgeon
Greenock and Inverclyde WS SNP LAB CON LD Stuart McMillan
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse CS SNP LAB CON LD Christina McKelvie
Inverness and Nairn HI SNP CON LAB LD Fergus Ewing
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley SO SNP LAB CON LD Willie Coffey
Kirkcaldy MF SNP LAB CON LD David Torrance
Linlithgow LO SNP LAB CON LD Fiona Hyslop
Midlothian North and Musselburgh MF SNP LAB CON LD Jenny Gilruth
Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale LO SNP LD CON LAB Colin Beattie
Mid Fife and Glenrothes SO SNP LAB CON LD Christine Grahame
Motherwell and Wishaw HI SNP LAB CON LD Richard Lochhead
Moray CS SNP CON LAB LD Clare Adamson
Na h-Eileanan an Iar HI SNP LAB CON LD Alasdair Allan
North East Fife MF SNP CON LD LAB Roderick Campbell
Orkney HI SNP LD Other CON Donna Heddle
Paisley WS SNP LAB CON LD George Adam
Perthshire North MF SNP CON LAB LD John Swinney
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire MF SNP CON LAB LD Roseanna Cunningham
Renfrewshire North and West WS SNP CON LAB LD Derek Mackay
Renfrewshire South WS SNP LAB CON LD Tom Arthur
Rutherglen GL SNP LAB CON LD Clare Haughey
Shetland HI LD SNP CON LAB Tavish Scott
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch HI SNP LD CON LAB Katie Forbes
Stirling MF SNP LAB CON LD Bruce Crawford
Strathkelvin and Bearsden WS SNP LAB CON LD Rona Mackay
Uddingston and Bellshill CS SNP LAB CON LD Richard Lyle
Regions
Central Scotland
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Richard Leonard Margaret Mitchell
2 Monica Lennon Graham Simpson
3 Mark Griffin
4 Elaine Smith
5 Craig Martin
6
7
TOTAL 9 5 2 0 0 0 0
Glasgow
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Anas Sarwar Adam Tomkins Patrick Harvie
2 Johann Lamont
3 James Kelly
4 Pauline McNeill
5 Bill Butler
6
7
TOTAL 9 5 1 0 1 0 0
Highland
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 7 0 0 1 0 0 0
1 Maree Todd Rhoda Grant Douglas Ross Carolyn Caddick John Finnie
2 Edward Mountain
3 Donald Cameron
4
5
6
7
TOTAL 8 1 3 2 1 0 0
Lothian
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Kezia Dugdale Ruth Davidson Alex Cole-Hamilton Alison Johnstone
2 Neil Findlay Miles Briggs
3 Gordon Lindhurst
4
5
6
7
TOTAL 9 2 3 1 1 0 0
Mid-Scotland & Fife
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 8 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 Claire Baker Murdo Fraser Willie Rennie Mark Ruskell
2 Thomas Docherty Liz Smith
3 Dean Lockhart
4
5
6
7
TOTAL 8 3 3 1 1 0 0
North-East Scotland
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Jenny Marra Alex Johnstone Mike Rumbles Maggie Chapman
2 Lewis MacDonald Alexander Burnett
3 Ross Thomson
4
5
6
7
TOTAL 10 2 3 1 1 0 0
South Scotland
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 5 0 4 0 0 0 0
1 Joan McAlpine Iain Gray Jim Hume
2 Emma Harper Claudia Beamish
3 Paul Wheelhouse Colin Smyth
4
5
6
7
TOTAL 8 3 4 1 0 0 0
West Scotland
SNP LAB CON LD GRN UKIP RISE
Cons 9 0 1 0 0 0 0
1 Jackie Baillie Jamie Greene
2 Neil Bibby Maurice Golden
3 Mary Fee
4 Ken MacIntosh
5 Johanna Baxter
6
7
TOTAL 9 5 3 0 0 0 0

 

Despite just managing to hold off the Tory surge, it will be a very bad night again for Scottish Labour – being the only party to lose ground in the election (fittingly redistributing their share of seats to other parties).  Big name casualties may include Labour’s David Stewart and the SNP’s Christian Allard & Aileen McLeod, with the SNP’s shift towards having almost all of the constituency seats in the country hurting some of their more prominent list MSPs’ chances of election.

These are just predictions of course, as we all know how last year’s General Election ones went, and things could change by the time the final results are clear tomorrow morning; but I’d count on these figures not being too wide of the mark.

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