How do polls work?

Opinion polls have had a rough ride in a political sense over the last few years.  Despite getting it broadly right in the Independence Referendum of 2014, the General Election of 2015 shook the industry to its’ core as the Conservatives marched to victory despite all the predictions. Last year’s political shocks of Brexit and Trump have also weakened belief in the polls, despite the final indications in each showing that they were close races towards the end. Polls are still our best way of — Read more →

EU Referendum Predictions

Britain’s decision day is here, and today the electorate will decide whether or not the UK should remain within or leave the European Union. Who’s going to win is anyone’s guess, with the polls being almost dead level going into today’s historic vote, but with the help of some precedent and some stats – I’m going to make a prediction on how things are going to turn out tonight. Here are how the final polls look going into the vote: Remain Leave Undecided Online 43.6% — Read more →

EU Ref Poll Update – 3 days to go

It’s been a tragic week in the EU referendum campaign, with the horrific murder of young MP Jo Cox on Thursday naturally overshadowing the political battle going on – although the two may, in utterly barbaric terms, be linked together by a gunman whose motives seem to be political in nature. All things considered though, the momentum that had been trending towards Leave in the last two weeks since my last update has slowed a little as the “status quo” effect has begun to kick — Read more →

State of the Polls: January 2016

Although I’m sure some will disagree, politics over the last few years has been tremendously exciting – with more twists and turns in the dramas of governance than we have seen in decades beforehand.  If you’d predicted the events of the last 18 months: from the surge in support for Scottish independence before it’s defeat in the referendum, the tsunami of support for the SNP in the following General Election, a Tory victory against all the odds in that same election and the election of — Read more →

State of the Polls: October 2015

With the summer now a distant memory and eyes turning towards what the next era in politics will bring with the new Labour reign of Jeremy Corbyn, opinion polls have been abound in the UK trying to sketch out what the political landscape looks like.  Many polling companies are still reeling from the industry-wide disaster that was the May General Election, but those that have re-entered the fray have made for some interesting results. This month also features the start of polling for next year’s — Read more →