EU Ref Poll Update – 3 days to go

It’s been a tragic week in the EU referendum campaign, with the horrific murder of young MP Jo Cox on Thursday naturally overshadowing the political battle going on – although the two may, in utterly barbaric terms, be linked together by a gunman whose motives seem to be political in nature.

All things considered though, the momentum that had been trending towards Leave in the last two weeks since my last update has slowed a little as the “status quo” effect has begun to kick in.

Leave now has the edge in the polling averages, but with undecideds usually going towards what they feel is the safest and most “normal” of the two options at hand – I still think Remain has the narrowest of edges going into the final two days of campaigning.

Here’s how things look as things stand:

Remain Leave Undecided
Online 43.2% 46.3% 10.5%
Telephone 45.9% 47.6% 6.6%
TOTAL 44.2% 46.8% 9.0%

This translates into a polls prediction of 51.5-48.5 to Leave, but with undecideds breaking towards Remain in a similar way to previous referendums – this would give Remain a lead of 50.6-49.4.

Here’s the data for now:

Online polls
Date Poll Comp. Sample Remain Leave Undecided
16-17 Jun Yougov 1694 44% 43% 9%
10-13 Jun ICM 2001 44% 49% 7%
7-13 Jun TNS 2497 40% 47% 13%
14-17 Jun Opinium 2006 44% 44% 12%
Telephone polls
Date Poll Comp. Sample Remain Leave Undecided
17-18 Jun Survation 1004 45% 42% 12%
11-14 Jun Ipsos Mori 1257 43% 49% 3%
10-13 Jun ICM 1000 45% 50% 5%
9-13 Jun ComRES 1002 46% 45% 9%
9-12 Jun ORB 800 48% 49% 3%

 

There are still polls to come in the next few days and there are still twists and turns in this campaign, but it does seem that every vote will count and that the Get out the Vote operation of both campaigns will be crucial in deciding who wins.

I’m still hopeful for a Remain vote, but the chances are almost literally 50/50 at this point.

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