State of the Polls: October 2015

With the summer now a distant memory and eyes turning towards what the next era in politics will bring with the new Labour reign of Jeremy Corbyn, opinion polls have been abound in the UK trying to sketch out what the political landscape looks like.  Many polling companies are still reeling from the industry-wide disaster that was the May General Election, but those that have re-entered the fray have made for some interesting results.

This month also features the start of polling for next year’s potentially world-defining American Presidential Election, with the parties’ primaries only three months away.

N.B.: All changes in brackets are from last month’s poll of polls post.

2020 UK General Election Polling

Despite headlines screaming of Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity and general unreadiness for government, opinion polls over the last month since he became Labour leader have showed no real dent in their standing.  While it is the same people being surveyed who are saying that Corbyn is not their choice for Prime Minister, it seems at the moment that loyalty to the party is stronger among voters than is expected among parliamentarians, who are sceptical of Corbyn’s electoral chances.

Con Lab UKIP LibDem SNP Green Other
38% 32% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1%

 

2016 Scottish Parliament Election Polling

The SNP’s unwavering lead in opinion polls seven months before the Holyrood elections already seems unassailable.  Even with the current Michelle Thomson scandal, public opinion is not turning against the dominant party of Scottish politics and it seems likely that they will be more than able to form another majority Government until 2021.

The interesting thing at the moment is that Labour seem to be slipping ever closer to the Conservatives in these polls.  While completely unthinkable just 12 months ago, nothing modern Scottish politics should be surprising – and with a charismatic leader in Ruth Davidson it’s certainly possible that there will still continue to be a flow away from Scottish Labour and that the Tories will pick up those who stray towards the centre-right.

Constituency Vote

SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
54% (-4) 22% (+1) 14% (+2) 5% (=) 1% (=) 2% (=) 1% (=)

Regional Vote

SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
48% (-5) 22% (+1) 14% (+1) 5% (+3) 3% (+2) 7% (-1) 2% (+1)
Scottish Independence Polling

With the anniversary of Scotland’s independence referendum, a flurry of polling has shown that the Scottish public is more divided than ever whether the country should go it alone.  There have been definite gains for the independence cause since 2014, but not enough to give it a commanding lead and certainly not enough to give Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP the assurance, at least not at the moment, to hold another referendum.

Yes No Don’t Know
46.9% 46.7% 6%

 

Yes No
50.13% (-5) 49.87% (+5)

 

Date Poll Comp. Sample Yes No Undecided
7-10 Sep YouGov 1,110 45% 49% 6%
4-10 Sep Panelbase 1,005 45% 51% 3%
7-10 Sep Survation 1,010 45% 46% 9%
12 Aug – 1 Sep TNS-BMRB 1,023 47% 42% 11%
24-30 Aug Ipsos MORI 1,002 53% 44% 3%

 

UK European Union Membership Referendum Polling

The upcoming European Union referendum looks like it could well hang in the balance, with pre-campaign polls showing the remain and leave arguments neck and neck.  A massive YouGov survey of over 11,000 people showed a slim majority for leaving the EU but subsequent, but much smaller, polls have shown that in general support remains for staying within the European Union.

What’s interesting is that in each of these polls Scotland and Wales have both been more strongly in favour of the EU than England – which could give rise to the potential “indyref” trigger in Scotland and maybe even in Wales should they be taken out of the EU against their will.

Remain Leave Don’t Know
42% 41% 16%

 

Remain Leave
51% (-3) 49% (+3)

 

Date Poll Comp. Sample Remain Leave Don’t Know
25-28 Sep ComRes 1,009 55% 36% 8%
25-27 Sep ICM 2,005 45% 38% 17%
10-22 Sep YouGov A 10,464 38% 40% 16%
2016 US Presidential Election Polling

We’re 13 months away from the biggest election in world politics, and despite just a few months ago the sure thing being another Bush and another Clinton battling it out, both have their challengers now.

Jeb Bush has fallen way behind the firebrand entrepreneur Donald Trump in Republican polling, with Trump’s outspoken manner in the two TV debates so far controlling the story and getting him the media attention to drive home his message.  While it’s still uncertain that Trump will get the nomination, with many Republican voters perhaps wanting someone who will represent their party more than their own personality, it’s certainly a very different race than anyone would have expected.

The Democrats’ coronation of Hillary Clinton is also looking a little rockier, with the significantly more left-wing option of Bernie Sanders picking up real momentum on the campaign trail.  He leads in small but electorally significant states and while his agenda may be too left-wing for most of America, he is getting plenty of backing among Democrats who are looking for a change.  Clinton still leads, but with months left of campaigning for Sanders to appeal to the electorate a lot could change.

Democrats Republicans
Clinton 47% Trump 31%
Sanders 28% Carson 18%
Biden 21% Fiorina 10%
O’Malley 1% Bush 10%
Webb 1% Rubio 9%
Chafee 0% Cruz 7%
Lessig 0% Paul 4%
Other 2% Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 1%
Jindal 0%
Other 1%

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