2015 General Election Predictions › Page 9

Wales & Northern Ireland Constituencies

Wales

Constituency	Con	Lab	LibDem	UKIP	Green	Plaid	Other	Winner	Gain?	Certainty
Aberavon	15%	57%	4%	14%	2%	8%	0%	Lab		Certain
Aberconwy	35%	25%	7%	13%	2%	18%	0%	Con		Leaning
Alyn & Deeside	32%	41%	6%	14%	2%	5%	0%	Lab		Leaning
Arfon	16%	31%	2%	14%		36%	0%	Plaid		Leaning
Blaenau Gwent	6%	54%	0%	13%	2%	5%	20%	Lab		Certain
Brecon & Radnorshire	36%	11%	34%	13%	3%	3%	0%	Con	Gain	TCTC
Bridgend	30%	38%	10%	13%	2%	7%	0%	Lab		Leaning
Caerphilly	17%	48%	2%	14%	2%	18%	0%	Lab		Certain
Cardiff Central	21%	30%	29%	13%	4%	4%	0%	Lab	Gain	TCTC
Cardiff North	37%	38%	6%	13%	3%	4%	0%	Lab	Gain	TCTC
Cardiff South & Penarth	19%	47%	0%	17%	6%	10%	0%	Lab		Certain
Cardiff West	29%	42%	5%	14%	4%	8%	0%	Lab		Likely
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr	21%	27%	0%	14%	2%	36%	0%	Plaid		Leaning
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South	40%	34%	0%	14%	2%	11%	0%	Con		Leaning
Ceredigion	11%	6%	38%	14%	4%	29%	0%	LibDem		Leaning
Clwyd South	30%	40%	5%	14%	2%	10%	0%	Lab		Likely
Clwyd West	40%	30%	1%	13%		16%	0%	Con		Leaning
Cynon Valley	9%	53%	1%	14%	2%	21%	0%	Lab		Certain
Delyn	34%	43%	3%	13%	2%	6%	0%	Lab		Leaning
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	22%	15%	0%	14%	2%	46%	0%	Plaid		Certain
Gower	32%	40%	7%	13%	2%	7%	0%	Lab		Leaning
Islwyn	14%	55%	0%	15%	2%	15%	0%	Lab		Certain
Llanelli	13%	42%	0%	14%	2%	30%	0%	Lab		Likely
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	8%	49%	20%	15%	2%	6%	0%	Lab		Certain
Monmouth	47%	27%	7%	13%	3%	3%	0%	Con		Certain
Montgomeryshire	41%	8%	26%	15%	2%	9%	0%	Con		High Likely
Neath	13%	49%	2%	14%	2%	21%	0%	Lab		Certain
Newport East	23%	39%	20%	13%	2%	3%	0%	Lab		High Likely
Newport West	32%	43%	4%	14%	3%	4%	0%	Lab		Likely
Ogmore	15%	57%	3%	14%	2%		0%	Lab		Certain
Pontypridd	16%	40%	19%	15%	3%	8%	0%	Lab		Certain
Preseli Pembrokeshire	42%	32%	2%	13%	2%	10%	0%	Con		Leaning
Rhondda	6%	60%	0%	13%	2%	20%	0%	Lab		Certain
Swansea East	15%	55%	6%	15%	0%	8%	0%	Lab		Certain
Swansea West	21%	37%	22%	14%	3%	5%	0%	Lab		High Likely
Torfaen	21%	51%	5%	15%	4%	7%	0%	Lab		Certain
Vale of Clwyd	35%	44%	1%	13%	0%	7%	0%	Lab		Leaning
Vale of Glamorgan	45%	33%	5%	10%	2%	2%	3%	Con		Likely
Wrexham	25%	39%	14%	14%	2%	7%	0%	Lab		Likely
Ynys Mon	21%	38%	1%	14%		26%	0%	Lab		Likely

Northern Ireland

Constituency	DUP	Sinn Fein	SDLP	UUP	Alliance	Other	Winner	Gain?	Certainty
Antrim East	6%	50%	5%	22%	11%	6%	DUP		Certain
Antrim North	12%	51%	8%	8%	3%	18%	DUP		Certain
Antrim South	13%	37%	8%	29%	8%	6%	DUP		Leaning
Belfast East	2%	34%	1%	15%	29%	20%	DUP	Gain	Leaning
Belfast North	35%	44%	12%	5%	5%	0%	DUP		Leaning
Belfast South	0%	27%	43%	15%	16%	0%	SDLP		High Likely
Belfast West	72%	7%	13%	0%	0%	8%	Sinn Fein		Certain
Down North	0%	4%	2%	59%	18%	17%	UUP	Gain	Certain
Down South	29%	10%	51%	4%	1%	4%	SDLP		Certain
Fermanagh & South Tyrone	84%	2%	12%	0%	0%	2%	Sinn Fein		Certain
Foyle	32%	14%	46%	0%	0%	8%	SDLP		Likely
Lagan Valley	3%	54%	4%	19%	12%	9%	DUP		Certain
Londonderry East	19%	38%	15%	15%	5%	8%	DUP		High Likely
Mid Ulster	73%	2%	26%	0%	0%	0%	Sinn Fein		Certain
Newry & Armagh	43%	15%	24%	17%	1%	0%	Sinn Fein		High Likely
Strangford	2%	51%	6%	27%	9%	6%	DUP		Certain
Tyrone West	50%	22%	13%	12%	2%	0%	Sinn Fein		Certain
Upper Bann	25%	37%	12%	24%	3%	0%	DUP		Likely