2015 General Election Predictions

Wales & Northern Ireland Constituencies

Wales

Constituency Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Plaid Other Winner Gain? Certainty
Aberavon 15% 57% 4% 14% 2% 8% 0% Lab Certain
Aberconwy 35% 25% 7% 13% 2% 18% 0% Con Leaning
Alyn & Deeside 32% 41% 6% 14% 2% 5% 0% Lab Leaning
Arfon 16% 31% 2% 14% 36% 0% Plaid Leaning
Blaenau Gwent 6% 54% 0% 13% 2% 5% 20% Lab Certain
Brecon & Radnorshire 36% 11% 34% 13% 3% 3% 0% Con Gain TCTC
Bridgend 30% 38% 10% 13% 2% 7% 0% Lab Leaning
Caerphilly 17% 48% 2% 14% 2% 18% 0% Lab Certain
Cardiff Central 21% 30% 29% 13% 4% 4% 0% Lab Gain TCTC
Cardiff North 37% 38% 6% 13% 3% 4% 0% Lab Gain TCTC
Cardiff South & Penarth 19% 47% 0% 17% 6% 10% 0% Lab Certain
Cardiff West 29% 42% 5% 14% 4% 8% 0% Lab Likely
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 21% 27% 0% 14% 2% 36% 0% Plaid Leaning
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 40% 34% 0% 14% 2% 11% 0% Con Leaning
Ceredigion 11% 6% 38% 14% 4% 29% 0% LibDem Leaning
Clwyd South 30% 40% 5% 14% 2% 10% 0% Lab Likely
Clwyd West 40% 30% 1% 13% 16% 0% Con Leaning
Cynon Valley 9% 53% 1% 14% 2% 21% 0% Lab Certain
Delyn 34% 43% 3% 13% 2% 6% 0% Lab Leaning
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 22% 15% 0% 14% 2% 46% 0% Plaid Certain
Gower 32% 40% 7% 13% 2% 7% 0% Lab Leaning
Islwyn 14% 55% 0% 15% 2% 15% 0% Lab Certain
Llanelli 13% 42% 0% 14% 2% 30% 0% Lab Likely
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 8% 49% 20% 15% 2% 6% 0% Lab Certain
Monmouth 47% 27% 7% 13% 3% 3% 0% Con Certain
Montgomeryshire 41% 8% 26% 15% 2% 9% 0% Con High Likely
Neath 13% 49% 2% 14% 2% 21% 0% Lab Certain
Newport East 23% 39% 20% 13% 2% 3% 0% Lab High Likely
Newport West 32% 43% 4% 14% 3% 4% 0% Lab Likely
Ogmore 15% 57% 3% 14% 2% 0% Lab Certain
Pontypridd 16% 40% 19% 15% 3% 8% 0% Lab Certain
Preseli Pembrokeshire 42% 32% 2% 13% 2% 10% 0% Con Leaning
Rhondda 6% 60% 0% 13% 2% 20% 0% Lab Certain
Swansea East 15% 55% 6% 15% 0% 8% 0% Lab Certain
Swansea West 21% 37% 22% 14% 3% 5% 0% Lab High Likely
Torfaen 21% 51% 5% 15% 4% 7% 0% Lab Certain
Vale of Clwyd 35% 44% 1% 13% 0% 7% 0% Lab Leaning
Vale of Glamorgan 45% 33% 5% 10% 2% 2% 3% Con Likely
Wrexham 25% 39% 14% 14% 2% 7% 0% Lab Likely
Ynys Mon 21% 38% 1% 14% 26% 0% Lab Likely

Northern Ireland

Constituency DUP Sinn Fein SDLP UUP Alliance Other Winner Gain? Certainty
Antrim East 6% 50% 5% 22% 11% 6% DUP Certain
Antrim North 12% 51% 8% 8% 3% 18% DUP Certain
Antrim South 13% 37% 8% 29% 8% 6% DUP Leaning
Belfast East 2% 34% 1% 15% 29% 20% DUP Gain Leaning
Belfast North 35% 44% 12% 5% 5% 0% DUP Leaning
Belfast South 0% 27% 43% 15% 16% 0% SDLP High Likely
Belfast West 72% 7% 13% 0% 0% 8% Sinn Fein Certain
Down North 0% 4% 2% 59% 18% 17% UUP Gain Certain
Down South 29% 10% 51% 4% 1% 4% SDLP Certain
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 84% 2% 12% 0% 0% 2% Sinn Fein Certain
Foyle 32% 14% 46% 0% 0% 8% SDLP Likely
Lagan Valley 3% 54% 4% 19% 12% 9% DUP Certain
Londonderry East 19% 38% 15% 15% 5% 8% DUP High Likely
Mid Ulster 73% 2% 26% 0% 0% 0% Sinn Fein Certain
Newry & Armagh 43% 15% 24% 17% 1% 0% Sinn Fein High Likely
Strangford 2% 51% 6% 27% 9% 6% DUP Certain
Tyrone West 50% 22% 13% 12% 2% 0% Sinn Fein Certain
Upper Bann 25% 37% 12% 24% 3% 0% DUP Likely

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