2017 General Election Predictions

The election that no-one saw coming just two months ago is finally upon is – after what’s been an intense campaign full of highs and lows.  As a politics junkie it’s been an unexpected hit, but I’m sure most of the public are relieved that it’ll finally be over.

What we’ve seen in the polls since the election started has been pretty exciting and made what looked like a Tory cakewalk into something a little more risky.  After increasing being a thumping 20 points behind, Labour have managed to sneak back to the same distance they were behind in 2015 – around six or seven points.

This election is in no doubt – the Conservatives will win and almost certainly win a majority, but the question is by how much.

My 2015 predictions were blown apart by the 10pm exit poll, which ridiculed the UK polling industry in just a couple of minutes as it proved the numbers we were being quoted throughout the campaign were wrong.  The Conservatives trounced their opinion poll ratings and walked back into Government with a majority.

This year the polling industry is a bit more “all over the place”, with different pollsters having different methods they think will provide an accurate result.  The main thing they disagree on seems to be how age will affect turnout, with the closer polls saying there’ll be a surge in young turnout and the ones showing a stronger Tory lead being modelled on what tends to happen (with less than 50% turnout for under 25s).

For me, this makes me feel that the polls closer to the high end of the Tory spectrum will be more correct.  There’s also evidence that campaigners and teams on the ground for both the major parties believe that the Tories will increase their majority and Labour fall back slightly.

So my personal expectation would be for a Tory majority of around 60 (up from 12), but I’m a firm believer in trusting the data as it is, so what I’ll do is show you what individual pollsters’ numbers would look like if they get it right.

For all pollsters that have figures for England, Scotland and Wales – I’ve put them into a model that calculates the change from 2015’s vote and predicts how many seats they’ll win.  The Poll Average row is based on an average of all polls run through this model, while the Total Average row is an average of all pollsters’ predictions:

CON LAB SNP LD PLAID GREEN Tory Maj.
2015 result 330 232 56 8 3 1 10
ComRes 346 222 51 8 3 0 42
ICM 362 209 53 5 1 0 74
Opinium 333 235 54 5 3 0 16
Survation 310 260 47 7 6 0 -30
YouGov 330 241 46 10 3 0 10
POLL AVG. 337 235 49 6 3 0 24
TOTAL AVG. 336 233 50 7 3 0 22

Note no poll gives UKIP a chance of claiming a seat so they are not included

From these predictions, I’ve also built a list of constituencies that might change hands tonight depending on the results.  They’re ranked by the percentage of polls that think they’ll change hands:

ICM Opinium ComRes Survation YouGov Poll AVG Chance of Change
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine CON CON CON CON CON CON 100%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk CON CON CON CON CON CON 100%
Clacton CON CON CON CON CON CON 100%
Dumfries & Galloway CON CON CON CON CON CON 100%
Carshalton & Wallington CON CON CON CON 67%
Dunbartonshire East LD LD LD LD 67%
Gower LAB LAB LAB LAB 67%
Southport CON CON CON CON 67%
Vale of Clwyd LAB LAB LAB LAB 67%
Bury North LAB LAB LAB 50%
Croydon Central LAB LAB LAB 50%
Derby North LAB LAB LAB 50%
Edinburgh West LD LD LD 50%
Morley & Outwood LAB LAB LAB 50%
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport LAB LAB LAB 50%
Renfrewshire East LAB LAB LAB 50%
Sheffield Hallam LAB LAB LAB 50%
Thurrock LAB LAB LAB 50%
Bridgend CON CON 33%
Cardiff North LAB LAB 33%
Chester, City of CON CON 33%
Ealing Central & Acton CON CON 33%
Edinburgh North & Leith LAB LAB 33%
Moray CON CON 33%
Perth & North Perthshire CON CON 33%
Wrexham CON CON 33%
Ynys Mon CON Plaid 33%
Aberdeen South CON 17%
Alyn & Deeside CON 17%
Arfon LAB 17%
Barrow & Furness CON 17%
Bedford LAB 17%
Birmingham Edgbaston CON 17%
Birmingham Northfield CON 17%
Bolton West LAB 17%
Brentford & Isleworth CON 17%
Brighton Kemptown LAB 17%
Carlisle LAB 17%
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr LAB 17%
Ceredigion Plaid 17%
Clwyd South CON 17%
Copeland CON 17%
Corby LAB 17%
Delyn CON 17%
Derbyshire North East CON 17%
Dewsbury CON 17%
East Lothian LAB 17%
Edinburgh South SNP 17%
Eltham CON 17%
Enfield North CON 17%
Gedling CON 17%
Halesowen & Rowley Regis LAB 17%
Halifax CON 17%
Hampstead & Kilburn CON 17%
Harrow West CON 17%
Hove CON 17%
Ilford North CON 17%
Keighley LAB 17%
Lancaster & Fleetwood CON 17%
Leeds North West LAB 17%
Lincoln LAB 17%
Llanelli Plaid 17%
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East CON 17%
Newcastle-under-Lyme CON 17%
Newport West CON 17%
Norfolk North CON 17%
Paisley & Renfrewshire South LAB 17%
Peterborough LAB 17%
Plymouth Moor View LAB 17%
Southampton Itchen LAB 17%
Stoke-on-Trent South CON 17%
Telford LAB 17%
Tooting CON 17%
Wakefield CON 17%
Walsall North CON 17%
Warrington South LAB 17%
Warwickshire North LAB 17%
Waveney LAB 17%
Weaver Vale LAB 17%
Westminster North CON 17%
Wirral West CON 17%
Wolverhampton South West CON 17%

There may be others that flip and some of these that don’t, but these are the ones where there’s the most chance of movement if the shifts we see in the polls are replicated across the country.

When watching tonight I’ll be expecting the worst but hoping for the best.  I’ve not tried to call the election dead-on, but hopefully this gives a guide as to what the results will look like come tomorrow morning.

 

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