The election that no-one saw coming just two months ago is finally upon is – after what’s been an intense campaign full of highs and lows. As a politics junkie it’s been an unexpected hit, but I’m sure most of the public are relieved that it’ll finally be over.
What we’ve seen in the polls since the election started has been pretty exciting and made what looked like a Tory cakewalk into something a little more risky. After increasing being a thumping 20 points behind, Labour have managed to sneak back to the same distance they were behind in 2015 – around six or seven points.
This election is in no doubt – the Conservatives will win and almost certainly win a majority, but the question is by how much.
My 2015 predictions were blown apart by the 10pm exit poll, which ridiculed the UK polling industry in just a couple of minutes as it proved the numbers we were being quoted throughout the campaign were wrong. The Conservatives trounced their opinion poll ratings and walked back into Government with a majority.
This year the polling industry is a bit more “all over the place”, with different pollsters having different methods they think will provide an accurate result. The main thing they disagree on seems to be how age will affect turnout, with the closer polls saying there’ll be a surge in young turnout and the ones showing a stronger Tory lead being modelled on what tends to happen (with less than 50% turnout for under 25s).
For me, this makes me feel that the polls closer to the high end of the Tory spectrum will be more correct. There’s also evidence that campaigners and teams on the ground for both the major parties believe that the Tories will increase their majority and Labour fall back slightly.
So my personal expectation would be for a Tory majority of around 60 (up from 12), but I’m a firm believer in trusting the data as it is, so what I’ll do is show you what individual pollsters’ numbers would look like if they get it right.
For all pollsters that have figures for England, Scotland and Wales – I’ve put them into a model that calculates the change from 2015’s vote and predicts how many seats they’ll win. The Poll Average row is based on an average of all polls run through this model, while the Total Average row is an average of all pollsters’ predictions:
Note no poll gives UKIP a chance of claiming a seat so they are not included
From these predictions, I’ve also built a list of constituencies that might change hands tonight depending on the results. They’re ranked by the percentage of polls that think they’ll change hands:
|ICM||Opinium||ComRes||Survation||YouGov||Poll AVG||Chance of Change|
|Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||100%|
|Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||100%|
|Dumfries & Galloway||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||CON||100%|
|Carshalton & Wallington||CON||CON||CON||CON||67%|
|Vale of Clwyd||LAB||LAB||LAB||LAB||67%|
|Morley & Outwood||LAB||LAB||LAB||50%|
|Plymouth Sutton & Devonport||LAB||LAB||LAB||50%|
|Chester, City of||CON||CON||33%|
|Ealing Central & Acton||CON||CON||33%|
|Edinburgh North & Leith||LAB||LAB||33%|
|Perth & North Perthshire||CON||CON||33%|
|Alyn & Deeside||CON||17%|
|Barrow & Furness||CON||17%|
|Brentford & Isleworth||CON||17%|
|Carmarthen East & Dinefwr||LAB||17%|
|Derbyshire North East||CON||17%|
|Halesowen & Rowley Regis||LAB||17%|
|Hampstead & Kilburn||CON||17%|
|Lancaster & Fleetwood||CON||17%|
|Leeds North West||LAB||17%|
|Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East||CON||17%|
|Paisley & Renfrewshire South||LAB||17%|
|Plymouth Moor View||LAB||17%|
|Wolverhampton South West||CON||17%|
There may be others that flip and some of these that don’t, but these are the ones where there’s the most chance of movement if the shifts we see in the polls are replicated across the country.
When watching tonight I’ll be expecting the worst but hoping for the best. I’ve not tried to call the election dead-on, but hopefully this gives a guide as to what the results will look like come tomorrow morning.