The debate then turned over to the questions of the audience, which provided some interesting points. The first arguments were about the role of oil in the Scottish and UK economy. Some good points were made with the “balance of payment” of oil flowing south to Westminster while Scotland hold much of the geographic share. Salmond also said that the UK Government underestimated last year’s revenue from oil by almost twofold, with £11bn coming in instead of the forecasted £6bn. Darling countered by claiming that almost every Scottish Government report in the last decade had overestimated the worth of Scotland’s oil and that the oil revenue in the last few years had dropped by £4bn – which is the equivalent of a large portion of Scotland’s education and health budget. In an independent Scotland, though, Salmond said an oil fund would be created based off the successful model in Norway which is worth £500bn now.
Concerns about the banking sector of Scotland were addressed too. Alasdair Darling claimed that Scottish banks were twelve times larger than the Scottish economy and contrasted that with Cyprus’ banking sector, which collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, which was only eight times larger. Salmond countered with the point that Scotland’s largest bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland, is 80% owned by the UK government and had more employees in London than in Scotland – so the idea that they would not be assisted in the event of a crisis was “ludicrous”.
Alasdair Darling had to mount a strong defence over his role as Chancellor during the financial crisis from attacks from the audience, moderator and Alex Salmond. He claimed that Scotland would not have survived the banking crisis without the UK and that through his leadership he staved off the collapse of the financial sector, even though RBS was apparently “three hours away from running out of cash”. Darling also claimed that his 2009 budget “did more for redistribution of wealth than any other budget in generations”. Salmond criticised Darling for his role in ushering in the age of austerity that has left more Scots in poverty.
The final question was about pensions, a question the audience seemed engaged in (apart from one girl interested in Gaelic), and one where I feel Salmond was strongest. He quoted a UK pensions minster who envisioned there would be no change to the distribution of pensions if Scotland became independent. Salmond also noted that Scotland already distributes its own pensions via centres in Dundee and Motherwell which also work on behalf of parts of England and Wales. Darling offered little in the way of rebuttal, apart from the fact that Scotland’s aging population would make it harder for Scotland to underwrite its pensions in the future.
In the closing speeches, Darling hammered home the point of uncertainty while Salmond reiterated his opening message about the democratic advantages of independence and the opportunity to bring Scotland’s future into its own hands with an “opportunity of a lifetime”.
For me I think Alastair Darling came away as the winner of the debate overall, and a Guardian/ICM poll afterwards showed that voters agree with me. Alex Salmond didn’t have his authoritative swagger tonight to sway people’s minds, and when he did he wasted it on frivolous questions that didn’t illustrate his point as well as he would have liked. Darling was on the ropes too at points, and didn’t deal very well with his unusual cross-examination, but I think he managed to convey the uncertainty that a Yes vote poses, especially on the currency issue, rather well. The lack of an official Yes Plan B on currency, despite good options being available, is really beginning to hurt them. I don’t think that too many people will have made their minds up based on the debate, but with their lead in the polls I think the No campaign will be happier with the result.
The first major debate in the referendum didn’t provide anything more than we already knew, and for the Yes campaign – behind in the polls – that’s not enough to swing the population behind them. Salmond and Darling go for round 2 on the BBC on the 25th of August – when the referendum will be only 24 days away. The big decision is drawing nearer, but the outcome is still far from certain.