Iowa Caucuses 2016

The Iowa Caucuses are where the hopes and dreams of Presidential candidates are first tested in America, and the job of screening the next occupier of the White House is one that residents of the mid-West state are proud to hold.

This year’s Iowa Caucuses have proved just as interesting as they have in the past, with both the Democratic and Republican races throwing up surprise results that leave each race as wide open as ever.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton looks set to win Iowa by a whisker, as Bernie Sanders’ lead in the polls failed to materialise on the day itself although he ran the establishment front-runner into a nigh-on dead-heat.

Whoever you prefer to end up as the nominee, it looks likely that this was a slightly better night for Clinton – although a result so close can easily be spun either way.  Sanders is relying on picking up momentum early on in the smaller states where he is most favoured, with the hope that by the time the Californians and Illinoisians of the country vote in their primaries that he is seen as a viable alternative.  Being so close to Hillary is certainly a boost for someone considered as an outsider, but Iowa was the sort of state he would needed to have carried to put him on the right track.

Democratic Iowa Caucuses 2016 – Results

Clinton

Sanders

O’Malley

Vote Share

49.6%

49.6%

0.5%

Delegates

22

21

Republicans

Despite Donald Trump being tipped to take Iowa en route to the Republican nomination at-large, Ted Cruz emerged the winner from the caucuses to throw a wrench into the billionaire tycoon’s plans.  Cruz has emerged as the second fiddle to Trump, espousing a similar right-wing rhetoric but one that is more closely in line with the traditional Republican and Tea Party message, and he may well be one to watch for the nomination outright.

For me though it’s Marco Rubio’s close finish in third place that is the story of the Iowa Caucuses.  He is the most moderate of the Republican front-runners and should expect the support of other candidates such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Rand Paul if they were to drop out of the race.  This compound support, as well as Rubio’s favourable image among independents, leaves him as the most electable Republican for the General Election come November.

Republican Iowa Caucuses 2016 – Results

Cruz

Trump Rubio Carson Paul Bush Fiorina Kasich

Other

Vote Share

27.2%

24.3% 23.1% 9.3% 4.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.9%

4.7%

Delegates

8

7 7 3 1

1

For both parties, the next fight in the election calendar is next week in New Hampshire – seen as a test of New England’s voting intentions.  Support here for Donald Trump is stronger, being closer to the Donald’s home town of New York, and for the Democrats may prove another close-run-thing as Bernie Sanders holds large poll leads over Hillary Clinton in the state.

America is on its’ way to deciding its’ new President, but don’t think for a second that it’s come close to a decision yet.

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