Having a referendum in a generation, say in 2030 or 2040, might be the optimum time now for any reboot of the independence movement. We saw in Quebec two referendums within fifteen years, one in 1980 and one in 1995, where the independence support grew massively in the interim, largely because the promises of the No campaign weren’t fulfilled. This precedent should really worry Westminster into delivering on their Vow. In 1980 the supporters of an independent Quebec won 40% of the vote and then fifteen years later they won 49.2%. A similar growth in Scotland would statistically see Yes win the second time around. Looking at the demographics of this year’s referendum would also be in Yes’ favour, as the most No-favouring age group was those aged 65 and over, so it stands to reason that the 65 and over demographic might be more favourable to independence when younger people graduate to it. 25% of No voters said in a Lord Ashcroft exit poll that they favoured No because they would have more powers for the Scottish Parliament within a stable UK. It stands to reason that if many of them are disappointed with the amount of change that more Holyrood powers bring, or if they simply feel no powers have been transferred, that many of them would also support independence given another chance at the ballot box. All it would take is 1 in every 11 No voters changing their minds to tip the scales. I think that is a very achievable goal in fifteen/twenty/twenty-five years whilst allowing the UK Government time to truly deliver on their promises of making the Union work for Scotland.
The Yes parties (the SNP, Scottish Greens and Scottish Socialist Party) have all seen their memberships skyrocket since Friday’s vote. The most recent tallies (and these are changing minute by minute) suggest the SNP has picked up 24,000 new members, the Greens have picked up 3,000 new members and the SSP has also doubled in size with around 1,200 joining. To put that into perspective, the SNP has seen its membership double since Thursday, overtaking the Lib Dems as the UK’s 3rd biggest party and the Green Party has now overtaken the Lib Dems in terms of membership in Scotland. This is a fantastic development for politics in this country, as it shows a much larger active engagement in politics and will hopefully be more than just a reactionary measure.
It’s clear that rather than taking a hit in support after the referendum these parties are succeeding, with a Sunday poll from Survation in The Herald saying that the SNP was on course to win a record 35% of the vote in May’s General Election and a whopping 49% of the vote in 2016’s Scottish Parliament vote. Contrary to many expectations then, it’s the “Westminster parties” particularly Scottish Labour that should be concerned about the party political fall-out from the referendum. Labour realistically need to win Scotland to have a chance at winning back Government in Westminster from the Tories next year, and if they do end up losing seats left, right and centre in Scotland it could be a disastrous showing for Ed Miliband & Co. Scotland might not appear to have much influence at Westminster, but if the support for Labour falls off in Scotland as it did for the Tories in the 80s and the constitutional overhaul promised for the whole country by the main party leaders does actually happen, then the Scottish electorate could have instigated a significant shift in the dynamic of politics UK-wide more so than it has for a long time.
These figures also show that Yes voters aren’t willing to put down their swords and give up on their dream for an independent Scotland. They weren’t proved wrong by losing the referendum, just shown that their ideas were in the minority. The reasons they voted Yes have not been dismissed. It’s to their credit that they are refusing to give up, and continue to hold their beliefs. This attitude is something I find exceptionally Scottish, and one of the reasons I think that independence may well happen in my lifetime. We do not give up without a fight. There only needs to be one vote for independence to make it happen, after all, whereas the Union needs to win every single time to keep itself alive. Circumstances might change by the time there’s another referendum on independence and that might change the way we think about the debate, and I wouldn’t blindly say now that I’d vote for it when I’m older, but there’s no conceivable way where the democratic and social arguments for independence would be any less compelling in future. Alex Salmond said in his resignation speech that the “dream will never die”, and I think those are far more prophetic words than we realise at the moment.
What we’ve learned from the last week then is: Scotland’s future will be within the United Kingdom with a much more politically engaged electorate and a much more critical eye on the Westminster establishment; The SNP will carry on under a new leader, likely to be Nicola Sturgeon, but is on course to continue to succeed and might govern Scotland for an unprecedented third term from 2016; And the independence question will not simply die out.