Dissecting the Referendum: The Campaigns

Of course, these doubts about currency fed into a broader economic critique of independence of which we felt the full force in the final week of campaigning.  As a poll suggested that Yes Scotland took the lead for the first time, Westminster flew into full panic mode and began to intervene in the referendum debate in a far, far stronger way than it had done before.  David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband all downed tools at Westminster and forewent Prime Minister’s Questions to campaign in Scotland.  100 MPs were conscripted to join the effort as well.  Ed Miliband called for the saltire to be raised across the UK to show solidarity with Scotland, a gesture that resulted in the flag being dropped from the Downing Street flagpole in a cruel twist of irony.  These gestures were dubbed “too little, too late” by Yes supporters, wondering where the interest had been in the fate of Scotland up until now.  The issue rarely gained any publicity in England or in Parliament until the final few weeks when the polls showed that Scotland could indeed vote to go it alone.  Perhaps surprisingly, I sympathise with the Conservatives’ hesitance to get involved in the debate as it felt as though they couldn’t win either way.  By intervening they appear as the out-of-touch Englanders that we didn’t elected meddling in our affairs, driving the Yes vote higher, and by staying away it appears that they don’t care and that also plays into the hands of those wanting independence.

However genuine the impassioned cries to “stay with us” were in the last week of the referendum campaign were I’m not sure, but I can’t doubt the effort they went through to create a maelstrom of scare stories to make Scots cower in fear of the prospect of independence at the same time they were asking us to stay within the Union.  Supermarkets were called in to Downing Street and asked to announce that prices would be higher in an independent Scotland.  Banks were told to announce that they would move their headquarters to England in the wake of a Yes vote.  The traditional media was reported these scares across the UK and did their part to create an atmosphere of doubt and fear around independence.  Social media did its’ best to counter-act this, trying to show that these scares were from those businesses more afraid of the effort of change than the result of it, but couldn’t stand firm.  Polls began to stagnate from then until the referendum and the rise in the polls for Yes was halted.

Heading into polling day, the result was too close to call but No did hold a narrow four point lead in the polls issued in the days immediately before the referendum.  With a record electorate of 97% of the voting age population, the pollsters were not sure if their predictions were accurate.  Two competing theories emerged over in which direction the new surge of political support would flow.  Yes supporters envisaged the “missing million”, a massive part of the population that had previously been uninterested in participating in elections that had been invigorated by the prospect of change and would vote to support independence.  Better Together suggested that the silent majority would carry the day, and that despite the Yes campaign’s massive presence in terms of social media, public demonstrations and canvassing, those who were quietly happy with the Union would make their voices heard where it counts at the ballot box.  There was also still a minority of the population going into the final days, and even the polling booth, undecided over which was the better option for them and for Scotland.

In the end, though, the silent majority turned up and cast their vote for No.  The Yes campaign had done a remarkable job in convincing people that independence was the way forward but its rise in the polls was stalled with the Westminster blitz in the final week before it could really take hold.

It took an incredible effort for the Yes campaign to get so close to winning, and the fact that 45% of the Scottish population believed in independence is nothing short of staggering given where the issue stood just two years ago.  The Yes campaign was organised from the ground up, and the smaller factions of the campaign such as the National Collective, Women for Independence and Wings Over Scotland will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  These looser, more informal networks are there ready to be reawakened if the public or political opinion in Scotland begins to shift towards independence again.

Politics and life in general in Scotland has changed forever as a result of the referendum campaign and the vote on Thursday.  We are a newly re-engaged and active political community ready to voice our opinions.  We are a beacon of democracy, with 84.5% of the electorate standing up to be counted and almost two years of mostly peaceful and reasonable debate.  The Yes campaign will be seen as a template for independence movements worldwide, and even for the power of grassroots politics in the twenty-first century among large scale campaigns here and abroad.  It managed to muster a 15% swing on as fundamental a topic as independence in little over a year and was undoubtedly a positive force for Scotland.  Better Together will be cited as a campaign that hobbled over the finish line, winning by a margin that doesn’t reflect how close it came to losing what was thought to be an unlosable referendum.

As disappointed as Yes campaigners feel about not winning the referendum, they can take great pride and achievement in coming so close.  Often the result is the only thing that is remembered in history, but with the independence referendum – I think that the three and a half million people that took part will let you know that there was far more to the story than just the final score.

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