The two big debates between First Minister Alex Salmond and Better Together chairman Alistair Darling where perhaps what triggered the general widespread interest in the campaign in the final six weeks. Darling won the first debate, although only narrowly so and generally because Salmond appeared slightly weaker than usual and didn’t give a satisfactory answer on the currency question. This resulted in a slight pause in the momentum towards Yes and set the tone for the debate for the rest of August. However, Salmond undoubtedly won the second debate by being far more passionate about the causes for independence than his counterpart could about the Union and by answering the currency question much better than he had before, leaving Darling with no more ammunition. This really kicked the Yes campaign into high gear and set in motion the massive boost in the polls that briefly saw it dead level or even slightly ahead of Better Together. I wonder if Salmond had won the first debate would the same pronounced swing to Yes have happened earlier and support among these new voters would have become more deep-rooted so that the Westminster barrage would have had little effect and Scotland would have said Yes.
Social media has become a growing force in politics in the last ten years around the world. Barack Obama’s election in 2008 showed social media’s value in political campaigning as he captured the youth vote to take him to victory. The Arab Spring in 2011 may not have been caused by social media, but networks such as Facebook and Twitter certainly helped facilitated the demonstrations that led to massive political change. In the UK, we’ve been almost immune to social media’s political involvement but the referendum has seen that change. With 16 and 17 year olds being allowed to vote in this election for the first time ever, social media became a battleground where ideas could be spread away from the mainstream media and where ordinary citizens could discuss and debate the issues rather than just politicians. There have been thousands of blogs written (not just by me) that have discussed and developed ideas on the referendum that have influenced the way people have voted. It’s been a triumph for democracy. The facts are though that it appears that the Yes campaign won the battle of social media in this campaign. Yes Scotland has 348,602 likes on Facebook while Better Together has 224,450. Yes Scotland has 116,000 followers on Twitter while Better Together has 42,600. The hashtags #YesScotland, #YesBecause and #VoteYesScotland all trended UK-wide in the run-up to the vote, with no competing Better Together trend. These facts show the massive effort that Yes voters went through to engage with each other and other people about their cause, something that wasn’t as present with the No campaign.
Social media was just on part of the large informal campaign in the referendum that played a bigger part than ever. The views and opinions of politicians may have become stale and repetitive by the final months of the campaigns, but public discussion between families and friends still continued apace. Scotland was alive with debate before the referendum. You could hardly go a conversation with many people without the vote cropping up. More than any election in UK history, the opinions of the people mattered more than those at the top of the campaigns, and I think that’s something that this debate can be remembered for. People on both sides of the argument managed to convince others to agree with their vote, and it would appear that Better Together did this more effectively judging by the final vote. However, it’s clear to see that Yes Scotland’s attempts at non-traditional political campaigning were far more visible and effective in getting the message across. Yes rallies in Glasgow, Aberdeen, Inverness etc. all attracted large numbers and were vibrant expressions of the will of many Scots to become independent. That wasn’t really there for the other side. Yes stickers are abundant here in Aberdeen and signs supporting the campaign were draped across thousands of lampposts and in windows across the Highlands. The Yes campaign felt inescapable at times, but Better Together/No Thanks was.
It’s hard to say where the campaign was won and lost, but I can pinpoint two specific issues and events that will dominate our view of the debate in hindsight that I feel combined to produce a No vote.
Yes Scotland ran a fantastic campaign, but the final chink in their armour was the question of which currency an independent Scotland would use. Despite actually publishing a range of options sanctioned by esteemed economists, including Bill Clinton’s former economic advisor Joseph Stiglitz, the Yes campaign insisted on sticking firm with the line that they’d campaign to keep the pound after independence, despite Westminster parties agreeing that it could not happen. Scots believed it was a bluff. When George Osborne made his famous “Sermon on the Pound” speech in February the Yes campaign actually received one of their largest boosts in the polls up to that point, going up by 3 or 4 points. Scots believed then and right up to referendum day according to polls, that the Westminster line was a bluff. But I think the uncertainty about currency was the fatal flaw in the Yes campaign. This came to be at the heart of the economic argument about independence and Better Together rightfully criticised the Yes campaign for not offering a “Plan B”. The first debate between Salmond and Darling was lost almost entirely because Salmond did not reiterate the other options for currency in an independent Scotland, despite the fact they were there. Salmond quelled fears slightly by mentioning the other currency choices in the second debate and went on to win comfortably, but the seeds of doubts in voters’ mind about currency were already planted and they were allowed to grow.