Yesterday was another important milestone in the independence referendum campaign, as the Scottish Government launched their long-awaited white paper. Entitled “Scotland’s future: Your guide to an independent Scotland”; it sets out the SNP Government’s vision for the aftermath of a Yes vote in next year’s referendum. If Scotland chooses independence next September, these are the terms that the current administration will be working towards achieving. This is the both the SNP’s manifesto for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election and the blueprint for Scottish independence.
Some of the headlines of the white paper include a proposed independence day of the 24th March 2016 and the first election to the independent Parliament on the 5th May 2016, the establishment of a written constitution, re-nationalisation of the postal service, maintaining the pound as the national currency, keeping the Queen as head of state, increased childcare provision, cutting corporation tax by 3%, a ‘triple lock’ pension increase guarantee and a revamped and ‘fairer’ tax system. On the whole the message is that society won’t change terribly much, but Scotland will be more in control of itself and will benefit because of it.
This article will explore the key points of the White Paper in a comprehensive summary, including links to relevant passages in the PDF version of the paper, and also feature some of the arguments of the No campaign against the proposals.
The White Paper begins by setting out the case for independence, as the SNP/Scottish Government has done for years. It argues that home rule is more appropriate for Scotland, and cites examples such as the ‘bedroom tax’, the privatisation of Royal Mail, and the proposed EU secession referendum as areas where Scottish MPs have been overruled by the will of the Westminster Government.
The Scottish Government say that Scots contribute £10,700 per head in tax rather than the UK wide average of £9,000, and have contributed more than average since 1981, making the case that we’d survive economically on our own. Obviously, the topic of oil is also prominent, saying that the resource makes our GDP output 20% larger than the UK’s as a whole. The White Paper’s argument is that these resources are not being used to Scots’ full benefit because the Scottish Parliament only controls 7% of generated revenue at the moment (going up to 15% shortly after the implementation of the Scotland Act 2012) and that independence would bring us full control over our assets. An independent government would cut corporation tax by “up to three percentage points” in attempt to make Scotland an easier place to do business.
Professor Peter McGregor of the University of Strathclyde suggests that cutting corporation tax could result in “retaliation” from the remainder of the UK, and create a “race to the bottom and a loss of tax revenues for both Governments”, which would be ineffective in achieving its’ intentions.
In welfare terms, the Scottish Government propose that they will abolish the ‘bedroom tax’ within the first year of an independent Scottish Parliament and ask the UK Government to halt the roll-out of the Universal Credit policy in Scotland immediately after a Yes vote in the referendum next year. The White Paper also claims an independent Scottish Government will be able to tackle “long-standing inequalities” in Scottish society.
The White Paper proposes that Scotland will keep the pound as its currency after independence, and cites the Fiscal Commission Working Group’s conclusion that this would be the best solution for both Scotland and the UK. As part of an improved tax system, that is more specific to Scotland’s needs, the SNP will: ensure that benefits rise along with inflation, end tax breaks for those that are married, and reduce tax avoidance by £250 million per year, by using modern, digital collection methods. The Minimum Wage will also rise along with inflation, monitored by a newly created Fair Work Commission. The Government will support more companies in implementing a higher Living Wage, which is a level beyond the minimum wage connected with the average cost of living.
Critics of the Scottish Government currency plans, such as the No campaign leader Alasdair Darling, say that there is no guarantee that a ‘monetary union’ between the UK and Scotland would be created after independence, and argue that the White Paper doesn’t show a “Plan B” if the UK upholds its right to decline. Others criticise a lack of detail as to how other financial arrangements, such as loans, mortgages and insurance, will transfer into an independent Scotland; with the White Paper merely stating that “firms will…continue to provide products and services to consumers across Scotland…no matter where they are based” and that “existing systems will be honoured in full following independence”.
The Government’s pension plans also include a departure from Westminster policies. The retirement age would increase to 66 by 2020, but not to 67 by 2026 in line with the UK Government’s gradual increase policy. The Government propose guaranteeing a ‘triple lock’ on pensions, which mean that the pension will always increase by the highest of three measures: average earnings, CPI inflation or 2.5%, which is a measure already in place in the UK, but only guaranteed until 2015. The pension will be a single-tier system, set at £160 per week in 2016, which is £1.10 higher than the UK pension would be under current projections. All existing public and private pensions before independence will be maintained.
One of the points the Scottish Government seemed to stress most heavily with the White Paper launch was their childcare policy, which would see a universal system covering children from the age of one until they enter school, with an aim of cutting household childcare costs and getting more women in the workplace.
A major criticism of the White Paper, particularly from Alasdair Darling, is that these childcare provisions “do not need independence” to initiate. Nicola Sturgeon responded in a press conference after the White Paper’s launch, saying that the SNP government would not introduce the policy because they do not want the tax earned by extra women in work to go to the UK Treasury. Darling called this admission “utterly astonishing”.
Although at the moment Scottish education is already separate from the UK system, the White Paper touches upon the subject by saying that the current Government would retain the policy of no tuition fees for higher education. The current policy of offering education, training or employment to anyone up to the age of 19 could be extended to the age of 24.
In a similar vein to education, there would be no change in the ‘day-to-day’ running of the NHS in Scotland and that cross-border care along with the UK would still exist.
A cornerstone of the SNP’s argument for independence for years has been its’ energy policies, and they are enshrined in the White Paper. The Scottish government claim that Scotland produces six times its’ demand for oil and three times its need for gas and that up to £1.5 trillion can be generated by the oil industry until it runs out in the middle of this century. The document claims that an “Energy Fund” will be created so that oil and gas revenues benefit future generations and claim that their policies will reduce overall energy bills by 5%. The Government also sees a big place in energy policy for renewable energy, and claims it will give us an “energy bonus” in future as we have 25% of Europe’s wind and tidal energy capacity.
On citizenship, the Scottish Government say that any British citizens “habitually resident” in Scotland or anyone born in Scotland will have a right to Scottish citizenship, and therefore a Scottish passport – with measures to be be instated for those not fitting these criteria to be naturalised as well.
Broadcasting is an area where the current Scottish Parliament has no power, but the White Paper suggests that very little will change in terms of broadcasting under an independent Scotland. BBC Scotland will be remodelled into a Scottish Broadcasting Service, and will continue to be funded by a license fee and co-operate with the BBC to provide Scottish programmes UK wide and UK programmes in Scotland.
The SNP were vehemently against the privatisation of Royal Mail in recent months, and would take steps to renationalise the company under an independent Scotland, bringing benefits to rural communities that pay higher prices at the moment because of their remoteness.
A big discussion point in the independence debate is international relations, and how the Scottish Government intends to deal with other countries and their institutions. The White Paper puts the cost of maintaining embassies and consulates worldwide at £120 million, which is claimed to be lower than Scotland’s current share in the cost of the UK’s programme. Scotland will apply to join the UN (whilst supporting the rest of the UK’s right to retain its’ seat on the UN Security Council) and EU. The Scottish Government say they will make a statutory commitment to maintain the UN’s policy of giving 0.7% of GDP as foreign aid.
On the EU, the White Paper claims that the Scottish Government will negotiate with the UK and EU on “the principle of continuity of effect”, meaning that the Scottish Government will claim membership based on the fact that all existing laws apply to Scotland already as part of the UK. Scotland will be an active member of the EU to “maximise the benefits of…membership”. Scotland will not join the Eurozone or the Schengen area, which is an area with travel between nations free of restrictions. The Scottish Government claim that we will keep our existing arrangement with the rest of the UK and the Republic of Ireland in keeping a Common Travel Area, with freedom of movement within the British Isles, as part of a “social union” between the countries. A new points-based immigration system will be set up to try to meet specific needs, such as repopulating rural areas and bringing certain skills into the Scottish economy, along with a new student visa programme.
Another international relations topic is defence. The Scottish Government would seek to remove the UK’s Trident nuclear weapons from their Faslane base within the first term of an independent Scottish Parliament and that is estimated save the country £500 million per year. Scotland would start negotiations to join NATO as soon as there was a Yes vote, and would aim for a 20,000 strong army, made up of 15,000 regular and 5,000 reserve personnel. Faslane would be repurposed as Scotland’s naval base. The aim for the defence budget would be around £2.5 billion.
In terms of transport, the White Paper does not specify which model of control will be used for Scotland’s railways, but makes high-speed rail a priority. “Substantial investment” will be made in the Highland Mainline and the line between Aberdeen and Inverness, in addition to creating high-speed rail links between Glasgow and Edinburgh. Another headline claim is that air passenger duty will be cut by 50%, and even further if public finances allow. The Government claims that such a heavy duty costs the Scottish economy £200 million per year and its reduction would boost trade and tourism. The White Paper also sets a target of dualling the roads between all of Scotland’s cities (which would include the A9) by 2030.
The White Paper has come under some criticism for not delivering an action plan to build a high-speed rail link with the North of England, something that the SNP has been vocal about in requesting from the UK Government, but passing it off as only a ‘priority’ after independence has been achieved.
Agriculture, food and drink would all benefit under an independent Scotland, according to the Scottish Government, as it will use its’ seat in the EU to argue for greater subsidies and take a stronger role in policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. As part of its’ environmental approach, an independent SNP government would maintain fishing quotas to protect our maritime ecosystems.
In the realm of justice, the Scottish Government plan to build upon the formation of Police Scotland with new approaches to: firearm control, the drink drive limit and gambling control and drug control. The current court system would be retained with the “Inner House of the Court of Session and the High Court of Justiciary sitting as the Court of Criminal Appeal will collectively be Scotland’s Supreme Court”. A new Scottish intelligence agency would be formed, with close links with existing UK counterparts.
All of these policies will be made possible by a transition period, which is also outlined in the White Paper, between Westminster and Holyrood rule. From the day after a Yes vote, both the Scottish and UK governments will work together to create a timetable for independence and transfer power to the Scottish Parliament to build the new framework for Scotland. Discussions to be had cover a wide range of topics including: Scotland’s EU membership process, allocation of national debt (which the Scottish Government concede could be reduced by offsetting it against value of UK assets which would be owed to Scotland) and how provision of services will be handed over to independent Scottish institutions.
An independent Scotland would have a written constitution designed by a constitutional convention of many different bodies, including public input. It will enshrine rights such as education, equality and healthcare into the nation’s founding document. The constitution would also take measures to protect citizens such as banning nuclear weapons and requiring conservation of the environment.
The Scottish Parliament would be elected in the same way it is currently under the current Government’s plans. Local government and emergency services also continue as normal, with local government powers detailed within the constitution. The civil service will largely exist as it does today, but will be spread around Scotland more than it is already. The Queen will also remain as head of state, returning Scotland to its’ monarchical status between 1603 and 1707.
All in all, the message from the SNP Government is that although the nation will change into independent hands, the vast majority of society will remain the same. It’s important to remember that almost all of the policy above is far from set in stone, and parties would be fully at liberty to adopt different policies at the 2016 elections. As it says in the White Paper: “It will be up to the people Scotland to decide the approach that best suits our nation as we move forward”.
I’d urge you at some point over the next ten months to read through this white paper yourself. The first chapter of the White Paper summarises the whole document very well in only 32 pages. There is also a comprehensive question and answer section at the end, where 651 separate points are dealt with.
The whole document is daunting at 650 pages long but contains all you need to know about what an independent Scotland will be, and will definitely help you towards making a decision on which way you should cast your vote. It steers clear, for the most part, from political jargon and has been designed to be easy to read. It will be interesting to see whether the No campaign look to create a similar manifesto for their cause on the back of this White Paper’s successful launch.
You can access the “Scotland’s Future” White Paper online via the Scottish Government website in e-book, HTML or PDF format or order a printed copy by calling 0300 012 1809 or e-mailing referendum2014@scot.gov.uk, letting them know your name and address.
Whether it is an illusion or a glimpse of the future, the vision of an independent Scotland is a lot clearer now.