Even though we’re not a week out from the referendum, the vision of a post-referendum Scotland is becoming increasingly clear as the dust settles. Neither side of the debate is carrying on with ‘business as usual’, with both recognising a significant appetite for change in Scotland if not for independence.
Westminster is not going to take the No vote as a vote of confidence in their actions, and are going to work on new powers, but they have changed the parameters of what they have promised to be more considered (not as quickly delivered as they promised) and more wide-ranging (encompassing measures for England, Wales and Northern Ireland too). According to Alex Salmond during his speech where he announced he is to resign as First Minister and SNP leader, David Cameron admitted to him that a crucial vote on the proposed new powers bill would be “meaningless” as Tory MPs are already revolting against their leaders plan to devolve more power away from Westminster. Ed Miliband has also announced that he does not support the Prime Minister’s plans for devolution, hoping instead for a constitutional convention in October (presumably only if Labour wins May’s General Election) to discuss more wide-ranging powers. Rather than getting more powers, more quickly within the UK, as Alistair Darling promised to the Scottish people towards the end of the referendum campaign, it appears that Scotland’s wishes are to be put on the back-burner after we have rattled our chains.
There have already been posts across social media with people announcing they have regretted that they voted No. On the other side of the debate, Yes supporters have galvanised behind the “We are the 45%” movement, referencing the share of the vote the Yes campaign won in the referendum, trying to push the agenda of more powers and continue the momentum from the campaign for a better deal for Scotland. Some are even discussing when next to put the question of Scottish independence to the people again.
Another referendum is certainly possible, perhaps even likely, if the resolve of those who voted Yes holds for longer than just the aftermath of the referendum. Alex Salmond was oft-quoted in saying that he thought that a No vote would put the issue to bed for a generation, but several commentators within and outside of SNP circles have noted that the new party leadership may well seek to distance themselves from that and look to hold a vote earlier. Tommy Sheridan, Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) leader and prominent Yes campaigner, has voiced his support for another referendum in just six years’ time. However, getting the circumstances together to create support for a referendum is tricky. There would need to be an SNP government in Holyrood with enough of a majority on its’ own or in coalition to support a referendum, which would need the SNP not only to win as the polls suggest they will, but to win handsomely like in 2011. There would need to be a UK Government who would support the referendum and accept its’ result as it agreed to do with the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012, easier said than done when there was a real panic that Scotland was going to vote Yes this time and prominent MPs (such as Jack Straw, who is usually far more reasonable) are already saying that this referendum has closed the door on any further chances for Scotland to vote on its’ future. But most of all there would need to be a Scottish public who was not only ready to vote again, which might take time, but probably a Scottish public who was much more in favour of voting Yes, otherwise it would create embarrassment for the SNP that would be tough to recover from.
For me, the generation timetable is perhaps the most likely to happen and most likely to succeed. A quick return to a referendum could well happen soon; if the UK votes to leave the EU with Scotland voting to stay in and if the “more powers” for Holyrood fall way below the expectations of No voters. However, even if this does result in a boost for Yes support, I’m not quite as sure if it would be as successful a campaign. This time, Yes Scotland worked largely on the basis of reinvigorating a disenfranchised section of the population and convincing them that they could play a part in real change that would benefit them. Having another referendum in six years wouldn’t find another “missing million”. It would likely turn off a lot of casual supporters of the cause, as they might still fatigued with being preached to over the issue of independence after going through it all just half a decade ago. I do still want to see an independent Scotland someday, but I think that we need to allow some time to accept the will of the majority to stay in the UK and let them try to convince us to stay with actions rather than promises.
Having a referendum in a generation, say in 2030 or 2040, might be the optimum time now for any reboot of the independence movement. We saw in Quebec two referendums within fifteen years, one in 1980 and one in 1995, where the independence support grew massively in the interim, largely because the promises of the No campaign weren’t fulfilled. This precedent should really worry Westminster into delivering on their Vow. In 1980 the supporters of an independent Quebec won 40% of the vote and then fifteen years later they won 49.2%. A similar growth in Scotland would statistically see Yes win the second time around. Looking at the demographics of this year’s referendum would also be in Yes’ favour, as the most No-favouring age group was those aged 65 and over, so it stands to reason that the 65 and over demographic might be more favourable to independence when younger people graduate to it. 25% of No voters said in a Lord Ashcroft exit poll that they favoured No because they would have more powers for the Scottish Parliament within a stable UK. It stands to reason that if many of them are disappointed with the amount of change that more Holyrood powers bring, or if they simply feel no powers have been transferred, that many of them would also support independence given another chance at the ballot box. All it would take is 1 in every 11 No voters changing their minds to tip the scales. I think that is a very achievable goal in fifteen/twenty/twenty-five years whilst allowing the UK Government time to truly deliver on their promises of making the Union work for Scotland.
The Yes parties (the SNP, Scottish Greens and Scottish Socialist Party) have all seen their memberships skyrocket since Friday’s vote. The most recent tallies (and these are changing minute by minute) suggest the SNP has picked up 24,000 new members, the Greens have picked up 3,000 new members and the SSP has also doubled in size with around 1,200 joining. To put that into perspective, the SNP has seen its membership double since Thursday, overtaking the Lib Dems as the UK’s 3rd biggest party and the Green Party has now overtaken the Lib Dems in terms of membership in Scotland. This is a fantastic development for politics in this country, as it shows a much larger active engagement in politics and will hopefully be more than just a reactionary measure.
It’s clear that rather than taking a hit in support after the referendum these parties are succeeding, with a Sunday poll from Survation in The Herald saying that the SNP was on course to win a record 35% of the vote in May’s General Election and a whopping 49% of the vote in 2016’s Scottish Parliament vote. Contrary to many expectations then, it’s the “Westminster parties” particularly Scottish Labour that should be concerned about the party political fall-out from the referendum. Labour realistically need to win Scotland to have a chance at winning back Government in Westminster from the Tories next year, and if they do end up losing seats left, right and centre in Scotland it could be a disastrous showing for Ed Miliband & Co. Scotland might not appear to have much influence at Westminster, but if the support for Labour falls off in Scotland as it did for the Tories in the 80s and the constitutional overhaul promised for the whole country by the main party leaders does actually happen, then the Scottish electorate could have instigated a significant shift in the dynamic of politics UK-wide more so than it has for a long time.
These figures also show that Yes voters aren’t willing to put down their swords and give up on their dream for an independent Scotland. They weren’t proved wrong by losing the referendum, just shown that their ideas were in the minority. The reasons they voted Yes have not been dismissed. It’s to their credit that they are refusing to give up, and continue to hold their beliefs. This attitude is something I find exceptionally Scottish, and one of the reasons I think that independence may well happen in my lifetime. We do not give up without a fight. There only needs to be one vote for independence to make it happen, after all, whereas the Union needs to win every single time to keep itself alive. Circumstances might change by the time there’s another referendum on independence and that might change the way we think about the debate, and I wouldn’t blindly say now that I’d vote for it when I’m older, but there’s no conceivable way where the democratic and social arguments for independence would be any less compelling in future. Alex Salmond said in his resignation speech that the “dream will never die”, and I think those are far more prophetic words than we realise at the moment.
What we’ve learned from the last week then is: Scotland’s future will be within the United Kingdom with a much more politically engaged electorate and a much more critical eye on the Westminster establishment; The SNP will carry on under a new leader, likely to be Nicola Sturgeon, but is on course to continue to succeed and might govern Scotland for an unprecedented third term from 2016; And the independence question will not simply die out.