2016 Scottish Parliament Election predictions

Steven Kellow

8 years ago

Scotland goes to the polls today to elect the members of the 5^th Scottish Parliament, and while the important result of who forms the Government might be settled already (with a third term for the SNP Government all but assured), the exact composition of the Parliament is still hanging in the balance.

Will the Tories finish second for the first time ever, pipping Labour to be the official opposition and adding further to their story of decline? Will the Greens have their best showing yet, beating the 7 MSPs they earned in 2003? Will some of the smaller fringe parties like RISE and UKIP manage to get a seat?

These questions will remain unanswered until the wee hours of Friday morning, and will be the real point of excitement in what has been a rather uninspired Holyrood campaign.

By looking at the final polls and the results of the previous election, here is how I think the 2016 Scottish Parliament election will pan out:

The SNP will win, but will not increase their majority by many seats, if at all
Labour will hang on to second place by a handful of seats
The Greens will beat the Lib Dems into fourth place in the popular vote but end up with as many seats
RISE and UKIP will both fail to get a seat, although they’ll both come close in their respective target regions of Glasgow and the Highlands
All party leaders will remain in their posts after the election

My predictions are based upon my average of all recent Holyrood polls combined with a ratio swing in each constituency and vote change swing in each region from the last election in 2011. I’ve made the region swing weighted a little towards the 2011 results, as we’ve seen in many of the last UK and Scottish elections that voters move back towards their previous vote when it comes to the final decision at the ballot box. Seats are then awarded using the D’Hondt method as they are in the election.

So here is what I expect the final results to be:

	Constituency		List
	Vote %	Seats	Vote %	Seats	Total	Change
SNP	51%	66	45%	4	70	1
Labour	21%	1	20%	26	27	-10
Conservatives	18%	5	18%	16	21	6
Green	0%	0	8%	5	5	3
Lib Dems	6%	1	6%	5	6	1
UKIP			2%	0	0	0
RISE			1%	0	0	0
Other	5%		0%	0	0	-1

And here is how those results will play out across the country:

Constituencies

	Region	MSP	2nd	3rd	4th	Elected
Aberdeen Central	NE	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Kevin Stewart
Aberdeen Donside	NE	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Mark McDonald
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine	NE	SNP	CON	LD	LAB	Maureen Watt
Aberdeenshire East	NE	SNP	CON	LD	LAB	Gillian Martin
Aberdeenshire West	NE	SNP	CON	LD	LAB	Dennis Robertson
Airdrie and Shotts	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Alex Neil
Almond Valley	LO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Angela Constance
Angus North and Mearns	NE	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Mairi Evans
Angus South	NE	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Graeme Dey
Argyll and Bute	HI	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Mike Russell
Ayr	SO	CON	SNP	LAB	LD	John Scott
Banffshire and Buchan Coast	NE	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Stewart Stevenson
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross	HI	SNP	LD	CON	LAB	Gail Ross
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley	SO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Jeane Freeman
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane	MF	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Keith Brown
Clydebank and Milngavie	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Gil Paterson
Clydesdale	SO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Aileen Campbell
Coatbridge and Chryston	CS	SNP	LAB	GRN	CON	Fulton MacGregor
Cowdenbeath	MF	LAB	SNP	CON	LD	Alex Rowley
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Jamie Hepburn
Cunninghame North	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Kenny Gibson
Cunninghame South	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Ruth Maguire
Dumbarton	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Gail Robertson
Dumfriesshire	SO	CON	SNP	LAB	LD	Oliver Mundell
Dunfermline	NE	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Shirley-Anne Somerville
Dundee City East	NE	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Shona Robison
Dundee City West	MF	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Joe FitzPatrick
East Kilbride	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Linda Fabiani
East Lothian	SO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	DJ Johnston-Smith
Eastwood	WS	CON	SNP	LAB	LD	Jackson Carlaw
Edinburgh Central	LO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Alison Dickie
Edinburgh Eastern	LO	SNP	LAB	CON	GRN	Ash Denham
Edinburgh Northern and Leith	LO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Ben Macpherson
Edinburgh Pentlands	LO	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Gordon Macdonald
Edinburgh Southern	LO	SNP	CON	LD	LAB	Jim Eadie
Edinburgh Western	LO	SNP	LD	CON	LAB	Toni Giugliano
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire	SO	CON	SNP	LD	LAB	John Lamont
Falkirk East	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Angus MacDonald
Falkirk West	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Michael Matheson
Galloway and West Dumfries	SO	CON	SNP	LAB	LD	Finlay Carson
Glasgow Anniesland	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Bill Kidd
Glasgow Cathcart	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	James Dornan
Glasgow Kelvin	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	GRN	Sandra White
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Bob Doris
Glasgow Pollok	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Humza Yousaf
Glasgow Provan	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Ivan McKie
Glasgow Shettleston	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	John Mason
Glasgow Southside	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Nicola Sturgeon
Greenock and Inverclyde	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Stuart McMillan
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Christina McKelvie
Inverness and Nairn	HI	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Fergus Ewing
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley	SO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Willie Coffey
Kirkcaldy	MF	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	David Torrance
Linlithgow	LO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Fiona Hyslop
Midlothian North and Musselburgh	MF	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Jenny Gilruth
Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale	LO	SNP	LD	CON	LAB	Colin Beattie
Mid Fife and Glenrothes	SO	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Christine Grahame
Motherwell and Wishaw	HI	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Richard Lochhead
Moray	CS	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Clare Adamson
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	HI	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Alasdair Allan
North East Fife	MF	SNP	CON	LD	LAB	Roderick Campbell
Orkney	HI	SNP	LD	Other	CON	Donna Heddle
Paisley	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	George Adam
Perthshire North	MF	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	John Swinney
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire	MF	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Roseanna Cunningham
Renfrewshire North and West	WS	SNP	CON	LAB	LD	Derek Mackay
Renfrewshire South	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Tom Arthur
Rutherglen	GL	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Clare Haughey
Shetland	HI	LD	SNP	CON	LAB	Tavish Scott
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch	HI	SNP	LD	CON	LAB	Katie Forbes
Stirling	MF	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Bruce Crawford
Strathkelvin and Bearsden	WS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Rona Mackay
Uddingston and Bellshill	CS	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	Richard Lyle

Regions

Central Scotland

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
1		Richard Leonard	Margaret Mitchell
2		Monica Lennon	Graham Simpson
3		Mark Griffin
4		Elaine Smith
5		Craig Martin
6
7
TOTAL	9	5	2	0	0	0	0

Glasgow

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
1		Anas Sarwar	Adam Tomkins		Patrick Harvie
2		Johann Lamont
3		James Kelly
4		Pauline McNeill
5		Bill Butler
6
7
TOTAL	9	5	1	0	1	0	0

Highland

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	7	0	0	1	0	0	0
1	Maree Todd	Rhoda Grant	Douglas Ross	Carolyn Caddick	John Finnie
2			Edward Mountain
3			Donald Cameron
4
5
6
7
TOTAL	8	1	3	2	1	0	0

Lothian

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
1		Kezia Dugdale	Ruth Davidson	Alex Cole-Hamilton	Alison Johnstone
2		Neil Findlay	Miles Briggs
3			Gordon Lindhurst
4
5
6
7
TOTAL	9	2	3	1	1	0	0

Mid-Scotland & Fife

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	8	1	0	0	0	0	0
1		Claire Baker	Murdo Fraser	Willie Rennie	Mark Ruskell
2		Thomas Docherty	Liz Smith
3			Dean Lockhart
4
5
6
7
TOTAL	8	3	3	1	1	0	0

North-East Scotland

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	10	0	0	0	0	0	0
1		Jenny Marra	Alex Johnstone	Mike Rumbles	Maggie Chapman
2		Lewis MacDonald	Alexander Burnett
3			Ross Thomson
4
5
6
7
TOTAL	10	2	3	1	1	0	0

South Scotland

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	5	0	4	0	0	0	0
1	Joan McAlpine	Iain Gray		Jim Hume
2	Emma Harper	Claudia Beamish
3	Paul Wheelhouse	Colin Smyth
4
5
6
7
TOTAL	8	3	4	1	0	0	0

West Scotland

	SNP	LAB	CON	LD	GRN	UKIP	RISE
Cons	9	0	1	0	0	0	0
1		Jackie Baillie	Jamie Greene
2		Neil Bibby	Maurice Golden
3		Mary Fee
4		Ken MacIntosh
5		Johanna Baxter
6
7
TOTAL	9	5	3	0	0	0	0

Despite just managing to hold off the Tory surge, it will be a very bad night again for Scottish Labour – being the only party to lose ground in the election (fittingly redistributing their share of seats to other parties). Big name casualties may include Labour’s David Stewart and the SNP’s Christian Allard & Aileen McLeod, with the SNP’s shift towards having almost all of the constituency seats in the country hurting some of their more prominent list MSPs’ chances of election.

These are just predictions of course, as we all know how last year’s General Election ones went, and things could change by the time the final results are clear tomorrow morning; but I’d count on these figures not being too wide of the mark.