Scotland goes to the polls today to elect the members of the 5th Scottish Parliament, and while the important result of who forms the Government might be settled already (with a third term for the SNP Government all but assured), the exact composition of the Parliament is still hanging in the balance.
Will the Tories finish second for the first time ever, pipping Labour to be the official opposition and adding further to their story of decline? Will the Greens have their best showing yet, beating the 7 MSPs they earned in 2003? Will some of the smaller fringe parties like RISE and UKIP manage to get a seat?
These questions will remain unanswered until the wee hours of Friday morning, and will be the real point of excitement in what has been a rather uninspired Holyrood campaign.
By looking at the final polls and the results of the previous election, here is how I think the 2016 Scottish Parliament election will pan out:
- The SNP will win, but will not increase their majority by many seats, if at all
- Labour will hang on to second place by a handful of seats
- The Greens will beat the Lib Dems into fourth place in the popular vote but end up with as many seats
- RISE and UKIP will both fail to get a seat, although they’ll both come close in their respective target regions of Glasgow and the Highlands
- All party leaders will remain in their posts after the election
My predictions are based upon my average of all recent Holyrood polls combined with a ratio swing in each constituency and vote change swing in each region from the last election in 2011. I’ve made the region swing weighted a little towards the 2011 results, as we’ve seen in many of the last UK and Scottish elections that voters move back towards their previous vote when it comes to the final decision at the ballot box. Seats are then awarded using the D’Hondt method as they are in the election.
So here is what I expect the final results to be:
|
Constituency |
List |
|||||
|
Vote % |
Seats |
Vote % | Seats | Total |
Change |
|
| SNP |
51% |
66 | 45% |
4 |
70 |
1 |
| Labour |
21% |
1 | 20% |
26 |
27 |
-10 |
| Conservatives |
18% |
5 | 18% |
16 |
21 |
6 |
| Green |
0% |
0 | 8% | 5 | 5 |
3 |
| Lib Dems |
6% |
1 | 6% | 5 | 6 |
1 |
| UKIP |
2% |
0 | 0 |
0 |
||
| RISE |
1% |
0 | 0 |
0 |
||
| Other |
5% |
0% |
0 | 0 |
-1 |
|
And here is how those results will play out across the country:
Constituencies
| Region | MSP | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Elected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Central | NE | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Kevin Stewart |
| Aberdeen Donside | NE | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Mark McDonald |
| Aberdeen South and North Kincardine | NE | SNP | CON | LD | LAB | Maureen Watt |
| Aberdeenshire East | NE | SNP | CON | LD | LAB | Gillian Martin |
| Aberdeenshire West | NE | SNP | CON | LD | LAB | Dennis Robertson |
| Airdrie and Shotts | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Alex Neil |
| Almond Valley | LO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Angela Constance |
| Angus North and Mearns | NE | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Mairi Evans |
| Angus South | NE | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Graeme Dey |
| Argyll and Bute | HI | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Mike Russell |
| Ayr | SO | CON | SNP | LAB | LD | John Scott |
| Banffshire and Buchan Coast | NE | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Stewart Stevenson |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | HI | SNP | LD | CON | LAB | Gail Ross |
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | SO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Jeane Freeman |
| Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | MF | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Keith Brown |
| Clydebank and Milngavie | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Gil Paterson |
| Clydesdale | SO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Aileen Campbell |
| Coatbridge and Chryston | CS | SNP | LAB | GRN | CON | Fulton MacGregor |
| Cowdenbeath | MF | LAB | SNP | CON | LD | Alex Rowley |
| Cumbernauld and Kilsyth | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Jamie Hepburn |
| Cunninghame North | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Kenny Gibson |
| Cunninghame South | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Ruth Maguire |
| Dumbarton | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Gail Robertson |
| Dumfriesshire | SO | CON | SNP | LAB | LD | Oliver Mundell |
| Dunfermline | NE | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Shirley-Anne Somerville |
| Dundee City East | NE | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Shona Robison |
| Dundee City West | MF | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Joe FitzPatrick |
| East Kilbride | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Linda Fabiani |
| East Lothian | SO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | DJ Johnston-Smith |
| Eastwood | WS | CON | SNP | LAB | LD | Jackson Carlaw |
| Edinburgh Central | LO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Alison Dickie |
| Edinburgh Eastern | LO | SNP | LAB | CON | GRN | Ash Denham |
| Edinburgh Northern and Leith | LO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Ben Macpherson |
| Edinburgh Pentlands | LO | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Gordon Macdonald |
| Edinburgh Southern | LO | SNP | CON | LD | LAB | Jim Eadie |
| Edinburgh Western | LO | SNP | LD | CON | LAB | Toni Giugliano |
| Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire | SO | CON | SNP | LD | LAB | John Lamont |
| Falkirk East | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Angus MacDonald |
| Falkirk West | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Michael Matheson |
| Galloway and West Dumfries | SO | CON | SNP | LAB | LD | Finlay Carson |
| Glasgow Anniesland | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Bill Kidd |
| Glasgow Cathcart | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | James Dornan |
| Glasgow Kelvin | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | GRN | Sandra White |
| Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Bob Doris |
| Glasgow Pollok | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Humza Yousaf |
| Glasgow Provan | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Ivan McKie |
| Glasgow Shettleston | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | John Mason |
| Glasgow Southside | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Nicola Sturgeon |
| Greenock and Inverclyde | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Stuart McMillan |
| Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Christina McKelvie |
| Inverness and Nairn | HI | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Fergus Ewing |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | SO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Willie Coffey |
| Kirkcaldy | MF | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | David Torrance |
| Linlithgow | LO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Fiona Hyslop |
| Midlothian North and Musselburgh | MF | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Jenny Gilruth |
| Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale | LO | SNP | LD | CON | LAB | Colin Beattie |
| Mid Fife and Glenrothes | SO | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Christine Grahame |
| Motherwell and Wishaw | HI | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Richard Lochhead |
| Moray | CS | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Clare Adamson |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | HI | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Alasdair Allan |
| North East Fife | MF | SNP | CON | LD | LAB | Roderick Campbell |
| Orkney | HI | SNP | LD | Other | CON | Donna Heddle |
| Paisley | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | George Adam |
| Perthshire North | MF | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | John Swinney |
| Perthshire South and Kinross-shire | MF | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Roseanna Cunningham |
| Renfrewshire North and West | WS | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | Derek Mackay |
| Renfrewshire South | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Tom Arthur |
| Rutherglen | GL | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Clare Haughey |
| Shetland | HI | LD | SNP | CON | LAB | Tavish Scott |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | HI | SNP | LD | CON | LAB | Katie Forbes |
| Stirling | MF | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Bruce Crawford |
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | WS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Rona Mackay |
| Uddingston and Bellshill | CS | SNP | LAB | CON | LD | Richard Lyle |
Regions
Central Scotland
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Richard Leonard | Margaret Mitchell | |||||
| 2 | Monica Lennon | Graham Simpson | |||||
| 3 | Mark Griffin | ||||||
| 4 | Elaine Smith | ||||||
| 5 | Craig Martin | ||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Glasgow
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Anas Sarwar | Adam Tomkins | Patrick Harvie | ||||
| 2 | Johann Lamont | ||||||
| 3 | James Kelly | ||||||
| 4 | Pauline McNeill | ||||||
| 5 | Bill Butler | ||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Highland
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Maree Todd | Rhoda Grant | Douglas Ross | Carolyn Caddick | John Finnie | ||
| 2 | Edward Mountain | ||||||
| 3 | Donald Cameron | ||||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lothian
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kezia Dugdale | Ruth Davidson | Alex Cole-Hamilton | Alison Johnstone | |||
| 2 | Neil Findlay | Miles Briggs | |||||
| 3 | Gordon Lindhurst | ||||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Mid-Scotland & Fife
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Claire Baker | Murdo Fraser | Willie Rennie | Mark Ruskell | |||
| 2 | Thomas Docherty | Liz Smith | |||||
| 3 | Dean Lockhart | ||||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
North-East Scotland
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jenny Marra | Alex Johnstone | Mike Rumbles | Maggie Chapman | |||
| 2 | Lewis MacDonald | Alexander Burnett | |||||
| 3 | Ross Thomson | ||||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
South Scotland
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Joan McAlpine | Iain Gray | Jim Hume | ||||
| 2 | Emma Harper | Claudia Beamish | |||||
| 3 | Paul Wheelhouse | Colin Smyth | |||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
West Scotland
| SNP | LAB | CON | LD | GRN | UKIP | RISE | |
| Cons | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jackie Baillie | Jamie Greene | |||||
| 2 | Neil Bibby | Maurice Golden | |||||
| 3 | Mary Fee | ||||||
| 4 | Ken MacIntosh | ||||||
| 5 | Johanna Baxter | ||||||
| 6 | |||||||
| 7 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Despite just managing to hold off the Tory surge, it will be a very bad night again for Scottish Labour – being the only party to lose ground in the election (fittingly redistributing their share of seats to other parties). Big name casualties may include Labour’s David Stewart and the SNP’s Christian Allard & Aileen McLeod, with the SNP’s shift towards having almost all of the constituency seats in the country hurting some of their more prominent list MSPs’ chances of election.
These are just predictions of course, as we all know how last year’s General Election ones went, and things could change by the time the final results are clear tomorrow morning; but I’d count on these figures not being too wide of the mark.